In order to predict earthquakes, scientists need to comprehend how they happen, what takes place right before and during the first stages. Even in today's world, these prove to be challenging as there are many factors that go into understanding earthquakes. Let's delve deeper into this process and see why the scientists cannot fully predict mother nature's tremors.
The Reason Why We Can't Predict EarthQuakes
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For centuries, people wondered what made our world shake so vigorously. The researches made on tectonic plates changed our understanding of this world forever.
In the 1960s, scientists developed the theory of plate tectonics, which explains that Earth's surface is made up of plates that move on top of molten material in the outer core.
As these plates move, they interact at their boundaries, where faults with rough edges cause friction.
This friction stores energy and when the plates overcome it, the energy is released in the form of seismic waves, causing what we know as earthquakes.
To find an earthquake's epicenter, scientists analyze the waves produced by the quake.
There are different types of waves. P waves travel faster and arrive first, followed by S waves. The closer you are to the epicenter, the closer together the waves will arrive. By measuring the time difference between the waves at three seismograph stations, scientists can triangulate the epicenter's location.
Scientists struggle to predict earthquakes because they don't fully understand the conditions of earthquakes.
These conditions include the rock materials, minerals, fluids, temperatures, and pressures located at the depths where quakes begin. While they can study earthquakes in controlled settings, like labs or mines, these situations don't accurately represent the complex faults deep in the Earth's crust.
Michael Blanpied from the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program explains that to predict earthquakes, scientists would first need to understand everything about earthquakes.
They need to understand exactly how they start, what happens before and during their occurrence, and if there's a way to detect their imminence, but this knowledge is still lacking.
Currently, it's believed that earthquakes begin small at isolated sections of a fault and then rapidly grow.
However, the nucleation process can occur anywhere along the fault, making it difficult to predict. Additionally, big and small quakes may start the same way, which means predicting large quakes is challenging since most earthquakes are minor and happen daily.